EA Reveals FIFA 19 Pack Probabilities And It Doesn’t Look Good

EA has disclosed the premium player pack odds in FIFA 19, most likely to avoid getting caught up in the ongoing paid lootbox controversy. Launched earlier this week, FIFA 19’s first promotion for FIFA Ultimate Team is now live. The Ones to Watch event adds numerous high value player cards.

For a limited time, players can get their hands on 23 exclusive Ones to Watch items. Some of the goodies hidden in the packs include special versions of Cristiano Ronaldo, Leon Goretzka, Radja Nainggolan, and many more. Like all previous FIFA games, players will have to spend premium currency in order to obtain the packs.

Using the new Show Pack Probabilities feature, FIFA 19 players can see the exact odds of obtaining a Ones to Watch player. From the pop-up window that opens up, we can see that the odds of receiving a Ones to Watch player is less than 1%. 

Pack Odds Probabilities
FIFA 19 Pack Odds

According to the game, the pack items are “dynamically generated” and their odds are verified using a “computational simulation.”  Additionally, the probabilities of the packs are verified on various time intervals.

Pack probabilities are re-calculated after every content update. In a post discussing pack probabilities, EA has explains how this process is conducted.

“Pack probabilities in FIFA 19 are calculated by simulating the opening of a very large number of packs, for each pack in the Store. The number of packs opened in a simulation varies based on rarity, but it will always be enough to be statistically valid.” 

As if the incredibly low probability wasn’t bad enough, the lowest value shown by the Show Pack Probabilities feature is “less than 1%”. This statement is very vague, and means that odds can be as low as 0.01%. Fans who are excited to get their hands on a Ones to Watch player won’t be happy. By revealing these statistics and telling the players just how unlikely their chances are, EA’s microtransaction statistics will most definitely take a hit.